A Trump Presidency: Stay True to This Old Adage

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American voters have chosen to bring big change to the White House. But resist doing the same with your long-term investments, they will be fine.

Many investors worldwide began to sell late Tuesday (November 8th U.S. time) as Donald Trump looked set to win the presidency. Stock markets tanked from Asia to Europe, and a similarly steep drop seemed likely when U.S. markets opened.

On the contrary, stocks proved resilient Wednesday morning (November 9th U.S. time), benefiting those who sat on their hands instead of selling immediately.

Elections can mean big, fast short-term swings for stocks and other investments. And emotions tend to run high in times like this, so it’s understandable if you find it hard to stay calm and leave your portfolio alone.

But we have to remember, history has shown that volatility after surprise events always die down. There is no logic or reason to why markets go down after somebody is elected as president. Most of this is due to speculative or irrational investing.

Long-term investments are meant to be held for many years to your retirement and longer. Big swings in the interim are normal and should be expected. Volatility is the price that investors pay in exchange for the higher returns that stocks have historically provided over bonds and other investments.

So rather than changing around your portfolio, focus on your career, hobbies and family, and avoid being overwhelmed with information. This is just one of the many events that will ride out itself.

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Brexit: What Should I Do with My Portfolio?

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Since the UK voted to leave the European Union on 23 June, global markets and currencies have reacted negatively to the uncertainty, with a significant falls across all major equity markets. The British pound fell to a three-decade low against the US dollar – its biggest one-day fall on record. Markets are likely to remain volatile until it becomes clear what Brexit will mean for the UK and the rest of the EU.

What does all this mean for your portfolio? Clearly, no one knows for sure. But no matter how markets react in the next few months, you should follow this advice: Don’t let fear of the unknown – or your emotions  make your investing decisions for you.

Why we let emotions drive our investments. We tend to be controlled by our emotions regardless of circumstances. We become overly excited and ready to invest at the worst possible times. And when it comes to deciding how to invest, we often rely on poor advice, a hunch or worse – speculation we heard on the news or the radio. On the other hand, we sometimes let our fears and emotions keep us out of the game altogether.

How to take the emotion out of your investment strategy. Whether you’re worried about how global events might affect your portfolio or just fearful in general, the best investment strategy is one built for the long term. In other words, once you map out a lifelong investing strategy with your financial advisor, you should have confidence in that strategy regardless of the blips you’ll endure along the way.

While it can be fun to “play” the markets, investors should refrain from playing or risking too much on a handful of bets. It is much more prudent to keep your investments boring by broadly diversifying across big and small companies, domestic and foreign companies, and between stocks and bonds.

If your portfolio is properly diversified, stay cool and await developments.

At the end of the day, investing is a game of consistency – one where the investors who take the longest approach usually win. And when it comes to emotional investing – whether out of fear or confidence – the only way to win is not to play.

The Truth About Diversification

Most investment advisors including myself, believe that building and maintaining a diversified portfolio is the most prudent way to help clients invest their money.

Not only do numerous studies of asset class returns back this up, but no matter how smart and experienced the advisor is, it’s near impossible to predict with consistency which asset class (e.g. stocks, bonds and cash) will outperform in any given time frame.

Studies on long-term investing have shown that more than 90% of the variations in a portfolio’s return can be attributed to the asset allocation decision.

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That isn’t to say that it doesn’t take skill and expertise to build a diversified portfolio – it does – there are many metrics that come into play such as growth prospects, valuation metrics, and global economic trends.

The truth about diversification is that a truly diversified portfolio will not provide the return of the best performing asset class over a given time period, nor will it match the return of the worst performing asset class. The return will be somewhere in between. Which is exactly the point – the highs are less high but the lows are less low making it more likely that an investor will not panic and change strategy at exactly the wrong time. This applies to both professional and individual investors.

The truth about diversification is that it isn’t a strategy designed to predict which asset class will outperform each year, but rather to gain from the outperformance in some asset classes while avoiding the lows in others and in the end producing solid average returns. Liken it to the Tortoise and the Hare story…as the Tortoise said: “slow and steady wins the race.”

Manage Your Wealth Like a Football Team

Just like managing a football team, managing your wealth properly requires a good team of players in 3 departments – defence, midfield and forwards.

In a game of football, let’s imagine if we have a team with a great goalkeeper and defenders but without strong forwards, will we be able to win? Well, the best possible result may perhaps be just a draw. In reality, when it comes to managing wealth, many people have made the mistake of being too conservative.

footballA dangerous thought which they have is keeping all of their savings in their bank accounts, assuming it is the most reliable way to make their money grow. However, they have forgotten the fact that bank interest rates can never keep up with the pace of inflation. Over a long period, the savings of these people will diminish in terms of purchasing power.

On another hand, can a football team do without a dependable goalkeeper and defence? The answer is certainly no. When facing the fierce attacks of an opponent, a team with a weak defence will be in shambles and suffer terribly. Similarly, without proper insurance cover to protect our wealth, if any disaster strikes, a rich man can very quickly become a poor man. Therefore, just like managing a football team, managing your wealth properly requires a good team of players in 3 departments – defence, midfield and forwards. With this analogy, let’s look at these 3 departments in wealth management.

1. Defence: Emergency Fund & Insurance

As the saying “Saving for a rainy day” goes, we should aim to keep an emergency fund of 3 to 6 times of our monthly expenses. This sum of cash will come in handy when events like a salary cut or retrenchment happens. For this emergency fund, we can save our money in bank savings accounts, fixed deposits or money market funds.

At the same time, we should also purchase insurance. For instance, hospitalisation insurance covers your medical bills in case of an accident or critical illness. Surgical fees can amount to over tens of thousands of dollars, and treatment for long-term illnesses such as kidney dialysis can cost more than $20,000 annually. With adequate protection, it gives you a peace of mind that unforeseen circumstances are prepared for. To understand your insurance needs, you can refer to an earlier post here.

2. Midfield: Endowment and Moderate Risk Investments for the Mid-Term

A strong midfielder has to be able to support the forwards and help out in defence. You can think of putting your money in investment instruments with moderate risks, such as savings endowment policies and balanced funds which invests in a mix of fixed-income (bonds) and equity, some with a larger portion in bonds. Alternatively, you can set aside a pre-determined amount to invest every month in global funds. This strategy of dollar cost averaging can help your money grow in the mid-term.

3. Forwards: High Yield Investments

With a solid defence and reliable midfield, if you have a surplus of cash and wish to grow it, you can put your money in investments with high returns and high risks. Such investments include real estate, stocks, currencies or sector funds. For those of you who actively keeps an eye on the stock market, you should have a super-sub forward – an opportunity fund. Every crisis comes with an opportunity. Whenever there is a global stock market recession, we are presented with an opportunity to buy stocks at very low prices, like it were the Great Singapore Sale. If you had bought DBS shares in early 2009 when the price was $7 per share, you can sell them off at $16 per share now and earn a huge profit.

Here’s to your financial success by managing your money just like a football team, or for the matter, any other team sports which requires a defence, midfield and forwards.